Real-World & Alternative DataCore researchlive in productionNew

Copper Steel Ratio

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

paper

2014

Source

Mu, X., Ye, M. (2014). "Commodity-Index Futures Returns and the Real Economy." Journal of Commodity Markets.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

Copper outpacing steel = capex cycle accelerating → long industrials.

How it works

Copper/steel ratio is a forward indicator of industrial-cycle leadership.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 5 times inside a blend (4 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 5 such blended picks (4 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Fred macro
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Reported return: Granger-causal 1-2mo
Tested over: 1992-2012

Mu-Ye 2014: Granger-causal at 1-2mo.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

XLI XLB FCX CAT DE

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

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