Earnings Revision Reversal
In plain terms
Analyst target revisions drift for ~30 days then stop.
How it works
Analyst-revision drift decays sharply — most return in first 30 days.
Data dependencies
- Analyst estimates
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- ~3% in 30d
- Tested over
- 1976-1986
Stickel 1989/91: ~3% in 15-30d top decile, sharp decay past 30d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Approximates analyst-revision breadth from the direction of consensus EPS-estimate changes over the last four quarters (we lack per-analyst revision data). Long when estimates have been rising in most recent quarters by a meaningful amount; short when falling. A simplified stand-in for the paper's per-analyst up/down revision counts.
A big overnight gap NOT preceded by an analyst revision is mispriced — the revision arrives ~5 days later and the price drifts further in that direction.
When analysts disagree widely on a stock's earnings, it's overpriced (pessimists can't short-sell in size). Short high-dispersion, long low-dispersion.
Explore Earnings Revision Reversal on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.