Real-World & Alternative DataExtended setexperimental liveNew

Earthquake Insurance Window Short

Updated eventData needs: lowshort onlylong only

2015

Ferreira, S., Karali, B. (2015). "Do earthquakes shake stock markets?" PLOS ONE, 10(7). Combined with Born-Viscusi (1994) JRI.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When a major earthquake (magnitude 6 or higher) hits California, Japan, or the Pacific Rim, reinsurers take an immediate loss-recognition hit — short them for 1-2 weeks. Construction firms gain on rebuild demand — go long for 3 months.

How it works

Major earthquakes (M >= 6.0) in California, Japan, or Pacific Rim regions trigger expected cat-loss premium widening for regional reinsurers — they take on the immediate loss estimate ahead of the formal accounting. Construction equity gets the longer-horizon rebuild bid. This family is the focused reinsurer SHORT 5-10d + construction LONG 60-90d pair.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 1 times inside a blend (1 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 1 such blended picks (1 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Usgs earthquakes
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: -2-4% reinsurer / +2-4% construction
Tested over: Reinsurer T+1 to T+10d; Construction T+1 to T+90d

-2-4% reinsurer over 5-10d; +2-4% construction over 60-90d (Ferreira-Karali 2015).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

RNR RE EG ACGL CAT URI

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Usgs Earthquake EventCompany Events & Earnings

M6.0+ earthquake → short P&C insurers 1-15 days.

Usgs Earthquake Regional DriftCompany Events & Earnings

Big CA earthquake -> CA-exposed REITs/banks/utilities do NOT sell off; tests the paper's no-drop (slightly positive) effect over the following week.

Enso Pc Insurance ShortReal-World & Alternative Data

When El Niño or La Niña intensify (|ONI| >= 1.5), US severe weather (tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons) tends to be more active. Property & casualty insurers (AIG, Travelers, Allstate, Progressive) face higher catastrophe losses. Short the basket for 3-6 months.

Explore Earthquake Insurance Window Short on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

Open universe with this filter →Browse all 572 families