Enso Pc Insurance Short
In plain terms
When El Niño or La Niña intensify (|ONI| >= 1.5), US severe weather (tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons) tends to be more active. Property & casualty insurers (AIG, Travelers, Allstate, Progressive) face higher catastrophe losses. Short the basket for 3-6 months.
How it works
Strong ENSO oscillation (|ONI| >= 1.5) — either El Niño or La Niña — historically correlates with elevated US severe-weather loss patterns: tornadoes (Niña), Atlantic hurricane season amplitude, Pacific typhoons. The US P&C insurer basket (AIG, ALL, TRV, PGR, CB) takes on elevated cat-loss probability over the subsequent 90-180 days, depressing equity prices.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Noaa oni
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- -2 to -5% over 90-180d
- Tested over
- T+14d to T+180d
-2 to -5% over 90-180d on P&C basket during strong ENSO regimes.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When NOAA's El Niño index (ONI) hits strong territory (>= +1.5), coffee, sugar and soy supplies tighten globally. Companies heavily exposed to those inputs (Starbucks, ADM, Bunge) tend to rise over the following 3-6 months.
Active hurricane → coastal stocks drop, reinsurers rally.
Hurricane approaches FL/TX/LA coast → property insurer stocks (ALL/TRV/AIG/PGR) drop for 1-3 weeks.
Explore Enso Pc Insurance Short on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.