el nino softs long
What it checks
When NOAA's El Niño index (ONI) hits strong territory (>= +1.5), coffee, sugar and soy supplies tighten globally. Companies heavily exposed to those inputs (Starbucks, ADM, Bunge) tend to rise over the following 3-6 months.
Mechanism
Strong El Niño events (ONI > +1.5) drive supply-side shocks in soft commodities — coffee (Brazil drought), sugar (Indian monsoon disruption), soy (South American drought). Consumer-staples firms heavily exposed to coffee and soy as input costs (Starbucks, ADM, BG) historically LIFT over 90-180 days as price escalation flows through to revenue/mix.
Signal rule
noaa_oni ONI >= 1.0 / 1.5 (strong El Niño) with 14d publication lag (T+1) -> LONG soft-passthrough equity (SBUX, KO, ADM, BG, HSY) for 90/180 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
noaa_oniWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- +3-7% over 90-180d
- Paper window
- T+14d to T+180d
+3-7% over 90-180d on soft-exposed staples during strong El Niño (CMR 2017).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
enso oniWeather|ONI| > 1.5 → soft-commodity shocks lift ag inputs/handlers 90-180d.
enso pc insurance shortWeatherStrong ENSO oscillation (|ONI| >= 1.5) — either El Niño or La Niña — historically correlates with elevated US severe-weather loss patterns: tornadoes (Niña), Atlantic hurricane season amplitude, Pacific typhoons. The US P&C insurer basket (AIG, ALL, TRV, PGR, CB) takes on elevated cat-loss probability over the subsequent 90-180 days, depressing equity prices.
drought pdsi agribusinessWeatherSustained D2+ drought in farm-belt → water utilities long; pure-yield ag short.
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