El Nino Softs Long
In plain terms
When NOAA's El Niño index (ONI) hits strong territory (>= +1.5), coffee, sugar and soy supplies tighten globally. Companies heavily exposed to those inputs (Starbucks, ADM, Bunge) tend to rise over the following 3-6 months.
How it works
Strong El Niño events (ONI > +1.5) drive supply-side shocks in soft commodities — coffee (Brazil drought), sugar (Indian monsoon disruption), soy (South American drought). Consumer-staples firms heavily exposed to coffee and soy as input costs (Starbucks, ADM, BG) historically LIFT over 90-180 days as price escalation flows through to revenue/mix.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Noaa oni
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- +3-7% over 90-180d
- Tested over
- T+14d to T+180d
+3-7% over 90-180d on soft-exposed staples during strong El Niño (CMR 2017).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Strong El Niño/La Niña shocks soft commodities → ag stocks rally 3-6 months.
When El Niño or La Niña intensify (|ONI| >= 1.5), US severe weather (tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons) tends to be more active. Property & casualty insurers (AIG, Travelers, Allstate, Progressive) face higher catastrophe losses. Short the basket for 3-6 months.
Long-running farm-belt drought → long water utilities + seed; short food processors.
Explore El Nino Softs Long on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.