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Eia Refinery Utilization Drift

Updated weeklyData needs: mediumlong only
paper
2002
Source
Extends: Considine, T. J. (2002). "Inventories and market power in the world crude oil market." Energy Economics. Novel refiner-equity application — alphactor 2026-05-20.
Read the paper →

In plain terms

When US refineries are running hot, refiners (VLO/MPC/PSX) outperform for a couple of weeks.

How it works

EIA weekly refinery utilization surprise vs trailing-52w same-week mean. Strong throughput = strong crack spread = LONG refiner equities (VLO/MPC/PSX/HFC).

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.
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Data dependencies

  • Daily prices

    Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

  • Eia crude storage

    A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return
150-300 bps over 10-20d
Tested over
T+1 to T+20d

Refiner crack-spread sensitivity gives ~150-300 bps over 10-20d on a >1σ utilization surprise.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Explore Eia Refinery Utilization Drift on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Learn more