eia refinery utilization drift
What it checks
When US refineries are running hot, refiners (VLO/MPC/PSX) outperform for a couple of weeks.
Mechanism
EIA weekly refinery utilization surprise vs trailing-52w same-week mean. Strong throughput = strong crack spread = LONG refiner equities (VLO/MPC/PSX/HFC).
Signal rule
z(refinery_util vs 52w same-week baseline) > 1.0σ → LONG refiner basket. Hold 5/10/20d. T+1 lag.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
eia_crude_storageWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 150-300 bps over 10-20d
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+20d
Refiner crack-spread sensitivity gives ~150-300 bps over 10-20d on a >1σ utilization surprise.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
eia crude storage surpriseGeographicalEIA weekly surprise drives same-day move in WTI + energy equities; bullish-draw → 1-5d energy outperformance.
eia natgas storage surpriseCommoditiesThe EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (Thu 10:30am ET) is the dominant single-event-day driver for the natgas equity complex. The market trades the surprise vs same-week-of-year 5y mean: build smaller than expected (or draw larger) = bullish, natgas E&P basket re-rates up 1-5 trading days.
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