Filings, Insiders & OwnershipExtended setexperimental liveNew

Form 144 Filer Cluster

Updated dailyData needs: lowlong only

2012

Cohen, L., Malloy, C., Pomorski, L. (2012). Decoding Inside Information. Journal of Finance 67(3): 1009-1043 (paper_url DOI). Signal construction (distinct Form 144 filer count within a 30-day window) additionally informed by Henderson, Jagolinzer, Muller (2015), working paper on strategic Form 144 / Rule 10b5-1 sale disclosure.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When 3 or more insiders file Form 144 (intent-to-sell notices) within a single month, the cited papers predicted the stock underperforms for 2-6 months. Our testing found the opposite on the current universe: these clusters happen at high-momentum names that keep rising, so the strategy buys on the cluster instead of shorting it.

How it works

Papers posit that when MULTIPLE distinct insiders file Form 144 (intent-to-sell notice) within a short window (3+ in 30 days), the clustering reflects coordinated information about over-valuation, predicting underperformance over 60-180 days. INTENTIONAL DEVIATION (template v4, 2026-06-08): on this universe the short thesis fails; pooled IS/OOS tests on two independent liquid baskets show the SHORT pool robustly negative (basket A IS -1.43 / OOS -2.68; basket B IS -1.90 / OOS -1.64), so the shipped implementation trades the INVERSE: clustered Rule 10b5-1 sell notices occur at high-momentum growth names after a run-up, and those names continue (momentum continuation), so the code goes LONG T+1 on the cluster. Paper citation is retained for the signal construction (distinct-filer count), not the sign.

Live results

3 times picked on its own · 53 times inside a blend (50 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 53 such blended picks (50 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
SEC form 144 filings
SEC Form 144 planned-sale notices, parsed from EDGAR structured filings.

Expected edge

Reported return: -3-5% over 90d (papers' SHORT direction; shipped implementation intentionally trades the inverse LONG)
Tested over: T+1 to T+180d

Papers' original claim: -3-5% over 90d SHORT on >=3 distinct filers within 30d (2003-2012 sample). Shipped (flipped LONG): pooled IS +1.43..+1.90 / OOS +1.64..+2.68 Sharpe across two independent baskets; mean forward-60d after fire +10.9% vs +8.1% same-names all-days baseline.

Related families

Insider-Sale OverhangFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When insiders file large planned-sale notices, we short the issuer for the next few weeks.

Form 144 Cluster With InsiderFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When 2+ insiders file paperwork to sell within 14 days of each other, the coordinated planned-exit signal tends to mark short-term tops.

Insider Post Runup SellFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When multiple insiders sell after the stock has rallied 20% or more from its 3-month low, that cluster of opportunistic sales tends to mark a near-term top. Short for 2-6 months. Routine sales unconditioned on price moves are noise.

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