Gdelt Geopolitical Tone Short
In plain terms
When the tone of news about a country tanks (z below -1.5), short the US-listed multinationals with revenue exposure to that country.
How it works
A material negative tone-shock in a country where a US-listed multinational has significant revenue exposure → the equity sells off over the next 1-10 trading days. Extends Caldara-Iacoviello 2022's GPR index by tightening the link to a specific equity's country footprint (v1 uses a curated map; v2 plugs into firm_country_exposure_quarterly).
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Gdelt country tone
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- -0.5% to -1.5% over 5d
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+5d
Target -50 to -150 bps over 5d on qualifying fires.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
GDELT scans millions of news stories. Sharply negative US-China headlines → short China-exposed chip stocks for 5 days.
GPR spikes → long defense/oil/gold over 1-3 months.
When global news event volume spikes 2σ above baseline, realized volatility is about to rise — under-weight (short) cyclical and high-beta names for 3-10 days.
Explore Gdelt Geopolitical Tone Short on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.