Gold Silver Ratio
In plain terms
Gold > 80x silver = risk-off → short small-cap.
How it works
Practitioner risk-regime heuristic: gold/silver ratio above 80 = risk-off (gold bid as flight-to-safety, silver weak as an industrial metal), below 60 = risk-on; small-cap/high-beta names track the ratio inversely. Baur-McDermott (2010) is thematic background only (gold's safe-haven behavior vs equity declines via quantile regressions); the paper does not study the gold/silver ratio, define 60/80 bands, or trade small-cap ETFs.
Data dependencies
- Fred macro
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- ~4% ann.
- Tested over
- 1979-2009
No published estimate; practitioner heuristic. The cited paper reports no small-cap spread.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
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