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TNIC product-market peer momentum spillover

Updated dailyData needs: highlong onlyshort onlylong short

2023

Lee, C. M. C., Sun, S. T., Wang, R., & Zhang, R. (2023). Technological Links and Predictable Returns (TNIC). Review of Financial Studies.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When a company's closest product-market rivals trend, this one tends to follow.

How it works

Propagates 21d momentum across the Hoberg-Phillips TNIC product-market graph: lagged returns of text-based product-market peers predict the focal name's same-direction drift as product/technology shocks diffuse slowly across competitors. This is the factory's flagship cited cell (Lee-Sun-Wang-Zhang technological-link predictability).

Live results

11 times picked on its own · 45 times inside a blend (45 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 45 such blended picks (45 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Entity graph edges
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Tnic peers
Hoberg-Phillips text-based industry classification peer lists (annual).

Expected edge

Slow diffusion of product-market/technology shocks across text-based peers; orthogonal to industry momentum (Lee-Sun-Wang-Zhang report Sharpe ~1.3).

Related families

TNIC product-market peer reversal spillover (2-hop)Filings, Insiders & Ownership

When a company's product-market rivals (and their rivals) overreact, this one tends to move the opposite way next.

TNIC peer relative-value reversionFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When a company drifts away from its closest product-market rivals, it tends to drift back.

cross-graph consensus momentum spilloverFilings, Insiders & Ownership

It looks at how a company's economically related peers (similar products, shared owners, shared board members) have been moving, and trades only when several of those peer networks point the same direction.

Explore TNIC product-market peer momentum spillover on alphactor.ai

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