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TNIC product-market peer reversal spillover (2-hop)

Updated dailyData needs: highlong onlyshort onlylong short

2023

Lee, C. M. C., Sun, S. T., Wang, R., & Zhang, R. (2023). Technological Links and Predictable Returns (TNIC). Review of Financial Studies.

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In plain terms

When a company's product-market rivals (and their rivals) overreact, this one tends to move the opposite way next.

How it works

Two-hop short-term reversal across the Hoberg-Phillips TNIC product-market graph: the focal name reverses against a short-term overreaction in its text-based peers and their peers (decay-weighted second hop), capturing overshoot that diffuses one product-market layer further before mean-reverting.

Live results

70 times picked on its own · 208 times inside a blend (188 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 208 such blended picks (188 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Entity graph edges
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Tnic peers
Hoberg-Phillips text-based industry classification peer lists (annual).

Expected edge

Mean-reversion against a wider product-market peer overreaction, complementing the 1-hop TNIC reversal family.

Related families

TNIC product-market peer reversal spilloverFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When a company's product-market rivals jump or drop sharply, this one tends to move the opposite way next.

TNIC product-market peer momentum spilloverFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When a company's closest product-market rivals trend, this one tends to follow.

cross-graph consensus reversalFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Only bets that a stock will snap back when several different groups of related companies all overshoot in the same direction.

Explore TNIC product-market peer reversal spillover (2-hop) on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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