Company Events & EarningsExtended setexperimental liveNew

Late Filing Drift Short

Updated event-triggeredData needs: lowshort only

2017

Bartov-Konchitchki 2017 The Accounting Review.

In plain terms

When a company files Form NT (saying they need more time on their 10-K/10-Q), we short the stock for the next 3-9 months because late filers underperform by ~10%.

How it works

Form NT (notification of inability to file) signals undisclosed bad news, control weaknesses, or auditor disagreement. The market underreacts; 12-month CARs of -8% to -12% follow. Drift concentrates in months 1-6 post-filing.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 1 times inside a blend (1 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 1 such blended picks (1 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
SEC form nt filings
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: 12m CAR -8% to -12%
Reported Sharpe: ~0.6-0.8
Tested over: 1995-2014 (Bartov-Konchitchki)

12m CAR -8% to -12% (Bartov-Konchitchki 2017); long-short Sharpe ~0.6-0.8 in follow-ups.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

XWEL NGTF KARX

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Lazy Prices ShortCompany Events & Earnings

The short side of 'lazy prices': firms that rewrote their 10-K heavily YoY underperform by 188 bps/month. Most of the lazy-prices alpha lives on this short leg.

Mdna Tone DeltaFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Read each year's 10-K through a finance-specific positive/negative word filter. Companies whose tone got more positive year-over-year tend to outperform after the filing date; those whose tone got more negative tend to lag.

Auditor Change Drift ShortPrice & Market Behavior

Companies that change auditors underperform by ~9% over the next year. Short the day after the 8-K Item 4.01 lands.

Explore Late Filing Drift Short on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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