Alt-Data#197tier 2live in productionNew

`linkedin employee growth`

cadence: Monthlydata: highlong onlyshort onlylong short

paper

2024

Source

Chen, S., Hwang, B.-H., Liu, B. (2024). "Hiring Frictions and Firm Performance." Review of Accounting Studies.

Read the paper →

What it checks

LinkedIn headcount jumps → stock outperforms next quarter; layoffs → underperforms.

Mechanism

MoM headcount change (z>+1 = expansion, z<-1 = contraction) predicts next-quarter results.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag.

Signal rule

MoM headcount z > +1 → long; z < -1 → short; restricted to top-100 mkt-cap; hold 30/90d

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
linkedin_headcount
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: ~2%/Q top-decile
Paper window: T+0 to T+90d

+2% next-quarter on top-decile growth.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

NVDA META GOOG AMZN CRWD

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

jolts hiring momentumMomentum

Belo, Lin & Bazdresch (2014) JAE "Labor hiring, investment, and stock return predictability": firms (and industries) with strong hiring growth tend to outperform over the following 1-2 quarters because hiring precedes earnings — management is acting on private information about demand. v1 is industry-level via BLS JOLTS supersector openings: long when YoY openings growth > +20% (strong sectoral demand), short when < −10% (sectoral contraction).

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linkedin employee growth