Oil Energy Sector Rotation Alfred Pit
In plain terms
Research-only causal macro adaptation using exact ALFRED vintages. It is not a paper replication, production signal, or established alpha effect.
How it works
adaptation: Driesprong-Jacobsen-Maat 2008 JFE document lagged oil->equity prediction in monthly regressions; the 60d z rule is an internal operationalization
Data dependencies
- Alfred series vintages
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
No inherited alpha claim; evaluate this causal adaptation post-cost against legacy and controls.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Uses Fed-funds, term spread, and credit spread (FRED data) to flag risk-off vs risk-on regimes and scale exposure accordingly.
Steep curve → favor cyclicals (XLY/XLF/XLI); flattening → favor defensives (XLU/XLP/XLV).
Copper leads industrial stocks by 4-8 weeks.
Explore Oil Energy Sector Rotation Alfred Pit on alphactor.ai
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