patent continuation burst long
What it checks
When a company files five or more patent continuations in 90 days from the same assignee, it's reinforcing protection around a successful product line. We buy the stock and hold for two to three months until the market prices in the innovation pipeline.
Mechanism
Continuation applications signal that the assignee is hardening protection around a successful core invention. A burst of >=5 continuations in 90 days from one assignee is a discrete signal of new-product-line commitment (legal infrastructure + attorney time + filing fees are not free).
Signal rule
Per assignee_ticker, compute trailing-90d count of USPTO patent applications. Fire LONG when rolling sum >= 5 (or >=10). T+1 lag. Hold 60/90 trading days (application-to-grant pipeline horizon).
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
uspto_patent_applicationsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- untested — internal
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+90d
Untested — internal. Hall-Jaffe-Trajtenberg 2005 documents 0.5-2% annualized excess return on patent-value top decile, of which the continuation-burst signal is a leading indicator.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
patent innovation premiumNetwork-EffectsPatent values inferred from 3-day stock reaction to USPTO grant. Firms with high value of recently granted patents (relative to market cap) outperform by ~3-5%/yr — real options on growth the market under-prices until citations validate.
patent application filing driftInnovation / PatentsPatent applications precede grants by 18-24 months, giving an earlier window into the innovation pipeline than the existing patent_innovation_premium family (which uses grants). A 12-month rolling application count in the top decile of a ticker's own 5y history signals a discrete R&D acceleration that the market under-prices because of the lag to commercialization. Distinct from patent_class_drift (CPC pivots) and patent_litigation_loss_drift (defensive IP).
Explore patent continuation burst long on alphactor.ai
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