patent litigation loss drift
What it checks
Patent lawsuit verdict — defendant wins → stock relief rally; plaintiff wins → drop.
Mechanism
Defendant-win → bullish drift (overhang lifts); plaintiff-win → bearish drift for defendant.
Signal rule
defendant_win for ticker → long 30-90d; plaintiff_win for ticker → short 5-30d
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
patent_litigationWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- +/-2-5%
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+90d
+/-2-5% over 30-90d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
patent innovation premiumNetwork-EffectsPatent values inferred from 3-day stock reaction to USPTO grant. Firms with high value of recently granted patents (relative to market cap) outperform by ~3-5%/yr — real options on growth the market under-prices until citations validate.
patent class driftInnovationCohen-Diether-Malloy 2013 RFS document that firms reallocating R&D / patent filings toward different technology classes earn 7-9% ann. abnormal returns over 1-2y. The market under-weights narrative pivots — patent-class shifts signal a real business reorientation that sell-side estimates don't reflect in real time. We proxy class-pivot via the rolling z-score of KPSS monthly innovation-value (highly correlated with the class-entropy delta in the paper's appendix).
Explore patent litigation loss drift on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.