Company Events & EarningsExtended setexperimental liveNew

Pead Informed Competition

Updated dailyData needs: lowlong onlyshort onlylong short

paper

2025

Source

Contreras, H. (2025). Informed Trading Competition and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift. SSRN Working Paper.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

How it works

Contreras (2025): PEAD collapses when insiders (Form 4) and short sellers (FINRA short volume) trade the SAME direction right after an earnings surprise (competition accelerates discovery); drift persists where informed flow is absent or conflicting. Build a SUE-signed PEAD signal gated on T+1..T+10 informed-flow concordance: size down the drift where insider net buying and short-volume change ali

Live results

4 times picked on its own · 56 times inside a blend (51 beat the stock) · updated 2026-07-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 56 such blended picks (51 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Earnings history
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
SEC insider trades
Form-4 insider transactions with role, size, and trade direction.
Finra short volume
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Tested over: Modern daily equity data

info premium; decay risk 2/5.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

SPY AAPL NVDA TSLA

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Pead Text ConfirmationCompany Events & Earnings

Standard PEAD trades on earnings surprise sign. This version only trades when the management's call tone agrees with the surprise — skips ambiguous prints.

Explore Pead Informed Competition on alphactor.ai

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