Event / Earnings#462tier 3experimental liveNew

`pead informed competition`

cadence: Dailydata: lowlong onlyshort onlylong short

paper

2025

Source

Contreras, H. (2025). Informed Trading Competition and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift. SSRN Working Paper.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Mechanism

Contreras (2025): PEAD collapses when insiders (Form 4) and short sellers (FINRA short volume) trade the SAME direction right after an earnings surprise (competition accelerates discovery); drift persists where informed flow is absent or conflicting. Build a SUE-signed PEAD signal gated on T+1..T+10 informed-flow concordance: size down the drift where insider net buying and short-volume change ali

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

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Signal rule

Contreras (2025): PEAD collapses when insiders (Form 4) and short sellers (FINRA short volume) trade the SAME direction right after an earnings surprise (competition accelerates discovery); drift persists where informed

Data dependencies

earnings_history
Worker data table, see services/worker schema.
sec_insider_trades
Form-4 insider transactions with role, size, and trade direction.
finra_short_volume
Worker data table, see services/worker schema.
daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Paper window: Modern daily equity data

info premium; decay risk 2/5.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

SPY AAPL NVDA TSLA

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

pead text confirmationEvent-Driven

Vanilla PEAD trades on SUE sign. This family gates by transcript-FinBERT sentiment direction: take position ONLY when sentiment agrees with SUE sign. Beat + bullish call → long; miss + bearish call → short; disagreement (beat-but-cautious, miss-but-optimistic) → skip. Filters out the messy 1/3 of earnings where management contradicts the headline.

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pead informed competition