Polymarket Resolution Outlier Long
In plain terms
When a Polymarket resolves sharply opposite to its long-run consensus, the linked stock tends to drift in the direction of the surprise for 1-3 weeks.
How it works
When a Polymarket resolves sharply opposite to its lifetime volume-weighted consensus (terminal-window avg >70% vs lifetime VWAP <30%, or symmetric), the resolution is a SURPRISE - the equity linked to the YES outcome experiences post-resolution drift in the direction of the surprise.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Polymarket markets
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Polymarket prices daily
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 100-300 bps over 5-20d (modeled)
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+20d
Wolfers-Zitzewitz / Berg-Nelson-Rietz surprise-resolution drift; internal target 100-300 bps over 5-20d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
In the last 5 days before a polymarket resolves, the YES price often overshoots its all-time fair value. We mean-revert: short when overshot up, long when overshot down.
Prediction markets (Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold) often price corporate events — FDA approvals, M&A close-by dates, CEO departures — faster than the stock does. When the prediction-market 'yes' price diverges from 0.5 by more than 5%, take a directional position in the linked equity.
When prediction markets disagree with options markets on the same event, the cheaper side has the edge. We take the equity position implied by whichever instrument is mispriced lower.
Explore Polymarket Resolution Outlier Long on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.