Polymarket Event Premium
In plain terms
Prediction markets (Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold) often price corporate events — FDA approvals, M&A close-by dates, CEO departures — faster than the stock does. When the prediction-market 'yes' price diverges from 0.5 by more than 5%, take a directional position in the linked equity.
How it works
Prediction-market prices on company-specific binary events (FDA approvals, M&A close-by-date, CEO departures, earnings beats, bankruptcy, lawsuit outcomes) update faster and more accurately than equity options price the same outcome. When the polymarket yes_price deviates from the option-implied probability of the same outcome by more than threshold, the equity has not yet absorbed the news.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Polymarket markets
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Polymarket prices daily
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- untested — moonshot
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+60d post-deviation
Untested — moonshot C. Target ~100-300 bps annualized on the subset of tickers with linked markets resolving within 90d (~50-150 names at any given time).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When a ticker files an 8-K signaling an M&A deal, the stock drifts directionally for 1-3 months as the market re-rates it.
When a drug company publicly posts the results of a late-stage (Phase III) trial, bet that its stock drifts down over the following weeks, and hold for about 2 to 8 weeks. The trade waits until the results are actually public before taking any position.
FDA AdComm + PDUFA target dates are ±15% binary catalysts.
Explore Polymarket Event Premium on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.