Event-driven#206tier 3live in productionNew

`polymarket event premium`

cadence: Event-drivendata: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2026

#206 polymarket_event_premium — moonshot C (no prior literature; alphactor internal 2026-05).

What it checks

Prediction markets (Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold) often price corporate events — FDA approvals, M&A close-by dates, CEO departures — faster than the stock does. When the prediction-market 'yes' price diverges from 0.5 by more than 5%, take a directional position in the linked equity.

Mechanism

Prediction-market prices on company-specific binary events (FDA approvals, M&A close-by-date, CEO departures, earnings beats, bankruptcy, lawsuit outcomes) update faster and more accurately than equity options price the same outcome. When the polymarket yes_price deviates from the option-implied probability of the same outcome by more than threshold, the equity has not yet absorbed the news.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

signal = sign(yes_lag - implied) when |yes - implied| > threshold; position = signal * min(1, 2|yes - implied|), capped ±1; yes series lagged 1 trading day to prevent look-ahead.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
polymarket_markets
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.
polymarket_prices_daily
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: untested — moonshot
Paper window: T+0 to T+60d post-deviation

Untested — moonshot C. Target ~100-300 bps annualized on the subset of tickers with linked markets resolving within 90d (~50-150 names at any given time).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

TSLA NVDA DJT MSTR COIN

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

m and a arbEvent

When a ticker files an 8-K with Item 1.01 (Entry into Material Definitive Agreement) or Item 2.01 (Completion of Acquisition or Disposition), the stock often experiences directional drift over 1-3 months as the deal plays out or the market re-rates the combined entity. We treat this as a coarse-grained M&A play (distinct from arbitrage on announced deals which needs target prices): long any ticker that filed a relevant 8-K Item for 21-63 days post-filing.

clinicaltrials phaseiii readoutEvent

Phase 3 completion dates are forecastable; pre-readout long-vol premium.

fda adcomm pdufaEvent

FDA adcomm + PDUFA target-action dates are ±15% binaries.