pos same store nowcast
What it checks
When SafeGraph's 13-week smoothed foot-traffic YoY for a retailer breaks above +5% or below -5%, the next earnings report is likely to surprise in that direction. Go long winners, short laggards, hold through earnings.
Mechanism
SafeGraph weekly foot-traffic data lets us nowcast same-store sales direction for brick-and-mortar retailers ahead of the quarterly earnings print. HYY 2024 document that foot-traffic YoY > +5% predicts positive EPS surprise; < -5% predicts negative. This family adds a 13-week smoothing layer to the existing store_traffic_safegraph signal to reduce holiday-calendar noise.
Signal rule
13w-smooth(yoy_pct_change) >= +5% (LONG) or <= -5% (SHORT), T+1 after 7d publish lag -> hold 21/63 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
safegraph_visitsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- +/-1-3% over 21-63d
- Paper window
- T+8d to T+63d
+1-3% LONG / -1-3% SHORT over 21-63d on above/below-trend retail names (HYY 2024).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
store traffic safegraphAlt-DataWeekly visits YoY +/-5% predicts SSS surprise for brick-mortar retail.
mall vs strip divergenceAlt-DataMall REITs (SPG, MAC) and strip-center REITs (REG, KIM, BRX, FRT) have systematically diverged in foot-traffic post-pandemic. When the cohort-level 13w-smoothed YoY gap exceeds 10pp, the rotation continues — go LONG outperforming cohort and SHORT underperforming cohort.
earnings announcement premiumEvent-DrivenStocks earn an abnormally positive return in the days surrounding scheduled earnings announcements (T−2 to T+1). The original 2007 paper documented ~9bp/day average premium during the window vs the non-announcement baseline; later replications show the effect has compressed to ~5-6bp/day but is still robust. The mechanism is asymmetric resolution of uncertainty plus retail inattention immediately around announcement. Signal: long the (T−2 to T+1) window per announcement, flat otherwise.
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