Company Events & EarningsExtended setexperimental liveNew
Recall First Of Model Year
Updated dailyData needs: mediumshort only
paper
1988
Source
Borenstein, S. & Zimmerman, M.B. (1988). "Market incentives for safe commercial airline operation." RAND Journal of Economics, 19(3), 397-417.
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In plain terms
When a carmaker's brand-new model year has its first recall, we short more aggressively - the market reads it as a real design flaw.
How it works
First safety incident on a newly-introduced model reveals previously-unknown design risk; ~2x the negative drift of recalls on mature models.
No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.
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Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- NHTSA vehicle recalls
NHTSA vehicle recall campaign data mapped to auto manufacturers.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- ~2x routine recall
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+40d
Borenstein-Zimmerman 1988: ~2x routine recall effect on new-model first recalls.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore Recall First Of Model Year on alphactor.ai
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