Refinery Utilization Z
In plain terms
When refinery utilization runs unusually low for the time of year, refiners tend to drift down on margin compression - we sell short for 5-10 days.
How it works
Borenstein-Bushnell framework: sustained throughput shortfall vs 5y same-week baseline is the cleanest exogenous shock to refiner equity. Low EIA utilization (z <= -1) -> forced-outage or demand slowdown -> SHORT refiners 5-10d.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Eia crude storage
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 80-160 bps over 5-10d (modeled)
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+10d
Borenstein-Bushnell throughput-tightness channel; internal target 80-160 bps over 5-10d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When US crude inventories start drawing down faster than usual (a sign refineries are running hot), refiner stocks (VLO/MPC/PSX) tend to outperform for a couple of weeks.
When gasoline ETF rallies vs crude ETF (a wide crack spread), refiners benefit; when it compresses, they suffer.
A bigger-than-seasonal crude draw lifts the broad E&P basket for the next few trading days.
Explore Refinery Utilization Z on alphactor.ai
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