refinery utilization z
What it checks
When refinery utilization runs unusually low for the time of year, refiners tend to drift down on margin compression - we sell short for 5-10 days.
Mechanism
Borenstein-Bushnell framework: sustained throughput shortfall vs 5y same-week baseline is the cleanest exogenous shock to refiner equity. Low EIA utilization (z <= -1) -> forced-outage or demand slowdown -> SHORT refiners 5-10d.
Signal rule
EIA refinery utilization (WCRFPUS2 or stocks-2nd-diff fallback) surprise vs 5y same-week mean; 52w rolling z; z <= -1.0 -> SHORT refiner basket 5/10d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
eia_crude_storageWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 80-160 bps over 5-10d (modeled)
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+10d
Borenstein-Bushnell throughput-tightness channel; internal target 80-160 bps over 5-10d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
eia refinery utilization driftCommoditiesEIA weekly refinery utilization surprise vs trailing-52w same-week mean. Strong throughput = strong crack spread = LONG refiner equities (VLO/MPC/PSX/HFC).
gasoline distillate crack spreadEnergyRefiner crack-spread divergence from norm passes through to refiner-tier (VLO/MPC/PSX/PBF) relative performance in 1-2w. We proxy the 2:1 crack via log(UGA)-log(USO) ETF spread.
eia crude storage surprise v2CommoditiesEIA weekly crude-storage surprises proxy inventory pressure in the WTI complex. Large bullish draws tend to lift a broader E&P basket over the next few sessions.
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