Economy & PolicyExtended setlive in productionNew
Tpu Trade Policy Uncertainty
Updated monthlyData needs: lowshort only
paper
2020
Source
Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A., Raffo, A. (2020). "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty." Journal of Monetary Economics, 109, 38-59.
Read the paper →
In plain terms
Tariff news spikes TPU; China-exposed semis underperform 1-2 months.
How it works
TPU spikes precede China-exposed semi underperformance.
No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.
Loading substrate evidence…
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Tpu index
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 1.5-2% in 90th-pctile months
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+60d
Caldara et al 2020: 1.5-2% underperformance in TPU 90th pctile.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore Tpu Trade Policy Uncertainty on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.