Geopolitical#152tier 2live in productionNew
tpu trade policy uncertainty
cadence: Monthlydata: lowshort only
paper
2020
Source
Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A., Raffo, A. (2020). "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty." Journal of Monetary Economics, 109, 38-59.
Read the paper →
What it checks
Tariff news spikes TPU; China-exposed semis underperform 1-2 months.
Mechanism
TPU spikes precede China-exposed semi underperformance.
No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag.
Signal rule
TPU 12m-rolling z >= 1.28 (~90th pctile) → short; hold 30/60d (China-exposed semis)
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
tpu_indexWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 1.5-2% in 90th-pctile months
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+60d
Caldara et al 2020: 1.5-2% underperformance in TPU 90th pctile.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore tpu trade policy uncertainty on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.