Trademark Filing Velocity
In plain terms
When a company files an unusual cluster of new trademarks, especially intent-to-use filings, it often signals a product launch and predicts 1-3 month outperformance.
How it works
Public companies file trademarks ahead of product launches and brand expansions; intent-to-use (1B) filings are especially predictive because they require the applicant to declare bona fide intent within 6-36 months. Rolling 30-day count of intent-to-use filings per ticker is z-scored over a 252-day window; spikes predict 1-3 month forward returns of 1-3% annualized.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Trademark filings
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 1-3%/yr (Carley-Lindsey 2014)
- Tested over
- 1985-2010 (Carley-Lindsey)
1-3% annualized on consumer-products and tech names.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Markets under-react when companies are granted high-value patents (measured by 3-day stock reaction at grant). Firms with valuable recent patents outperform by 3-5%/yr.
When a company's patent portfolio shifts into new technology classes (e.g. legacy hardware -> AI), it's signaling a real pivot. The stock outperforms over the next 1-2 years.
Explore Trademark Filing Velocity on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.