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Transcript Analyst Frustration

Updated eventData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2010

Hollander, Pronk & Roelofsen (2010) *Journal of Accounting Research*: "Does Silence Speak? An Empirical Analysis of Disclosure Choices During Conference Calls." Bowen-Davis-Matsumoto (2002 AR) and Larcker-Zakolyukina (2012 JAR) extend: analyst tone in Q&A questions carries forward-looking information.

Citation only, paper link pending.

In plain terms

Measures the tone of the ANALYSTS asking questions, not management's answers. When their questions sound frustrated or skeptical, the stock tends to drift down over the following weeks.

How it works

Analyst tone during the Q&A section — the *questions* themselves, not the answers — carries forward-looking information independent of the news in the call. When analysts sound skeptical or frustrated (negative FinBERT tone, sharp questions), 60-day drift skews negative. We z-score per-call mean analyst_qa_tone against the firm's own history of analyst sentiment.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 24 times inside a blend (24 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 24 such blended picks (24 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Transcript finbert scores
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Tested over: 2002-2008

Analyst Q&A tone predicts 60-day drift independent of the call's stated news content; cleanest signal on calls with multiple analysts asking sharp follow-ups.

Related families

Transcript Finbert Qa DispersionFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Listens to how steady management's tone is during analyst Q&A. If answers swing between confident and defensive, it usually signals trouble ahead.

Transcript Qa CombativenessFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Analysts asking longer questions paired with shorter manager answers signals skepticism — predicts near-term underperformance.

Transcript Cfo Qa DefensivenessFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Specifically measures the CFO's tone swings during the analyst Q&A portion. When the CFO oscillates between positive boilerplate and defensive clarifications, expect a forward miss.

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