Company Events & EarningsExtended setexperimental liveNew

Transcript Numerical Specificity

Updated event-triggeredData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2025

Campbell, Zheng & Zhou (2025), Journal of Corporate Finance.

In plain terms

When management gives unusually concrete numbers on an earnings call, uncertainty can fall. When the call gets vague, that can be a warning sign.

How it works

More quantitative earnings-call disclosure can reduce information risk. The family counts numeric tokens per 1,000 transcript words and compares each call to the firm's prior call history.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 2 times inside a blend (2 beat the stock) · updated 2026-07-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 2 such blended picks (2 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Earnings call transcripts
Full earnings-call transcripts (prepared + Q&A), tokenised.

Expected edge

Reported return: 23bps 3-day CAR per 1sd numeric specificity in the paper setting
Tested over: Earnings-call event windows

Information-risk reduction around number-dense calls.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

AAPL MSFT NVDA JPM

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

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Forward Looking Statement CountFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Companies that ramp up forward-looking language in their annual filing tend to outperform; those that pull back tend to underperform.

Transcript Qa CombativenessFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Analysts asking longer questions paired with shorter manager answers signals skepticism — predicts near-term underperformance.

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