Transcript Revision Disagreement Pt Dispersion
In plain terms
When analyst price targets are widely spread after an earnings call and management tone was bullish, the stock tends to underperform as the optimistic outliers revise down.
How it works
Dispersion in analyst price targets after an earnings call, combined with a tone gap between management and analysts, identifies stocks where information is genuinely ambiguous. High dispersion with negative tone gap predicts underperformance as the lower-end targets converge toward reality.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Finbert scores
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Analyst estimates
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Earnings transcripts
Full earnings-call transcripts (prepared + Q&A), tokenised.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- ~5.6% ann. short-side (Diether-Malloy-Scherbina)
- Tested over
- 1983-2000 (Diether-Malloy-Scherbina)
Price-target dispersion + tone disagreement: ~3% 30-day underperformance in high-dispersion short cohort.
Related families
The larger the gap between management optimism on a call and subsequent analyst estimate cuts, the stronger the drift toward analyst reality.
When the prepared remarks on an earnings call are much more upbeat than the Q&A section, the stock tends to drift down as the optimism fades.
Explore Transcript Revision Disagreement Pt Dispersion on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.