Transcript Uncertainty Score Lineaged Pit
In plain terms
Research-only transcript policy using content-addressed, observation-tiered calls. Bulk history is survivorship-caveated and cannot establish production alpha.
How it works
LM uncertainty is supported; the own-z short rule and horizons are an adaptation
Data dependencies
- Transcript revision admissible
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Transcript content vintages
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
No inherited return claim; evaluate the exact lineaged policy post-cost against identical-episode controls.
Related families
Filters out analyst speech and just measures how often the CEO/CFO use uncertainty words ('may', 'could'). High uncertainty = bearish.
When managers' call language gets harder to read (rising Fog index) Q/Q, they're hiding bad news. Predicts 12-month underperformance.
Counts uncertainty/risk words ('may', 'could', 'challenging') in 10-K Item 1 (Business) YoY. A spike means management is privately more worried — bearish.
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