Economy & PolicyExtended setexperimental liveNew
Trump Post Volume
Updated dailyData needs: lowlong only
paper
2011
Source
Da-Engelberg-Gao 2011 JF (attention as alpha) adapted to political-speech firehose. Falsification companion to trump_tariff_tone.
Citation only, paper link pending.
In plain terms
When Trump posts a lot in one day, we test whether that volume alone moves any ticker the next day, regardless of what he said.
How it works
Pure post-volume attention signal, no content classification. Spikes in daily Trump post count z-score correlate with tape-wide vol expansion + breadth contraction. Broadcasting lets the harness separate ticker-specific reactivity from generic noise.
Live results
109 times picked on its own · 128 times inside a blend (98 beat the stock) · updated 2026-07-06This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 128 such blended picks (98 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.
How its picks scored vs. buy & hold
Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock
Where its edge concentrates
Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold
How often it trades
Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often
Return vs. buy & hold
How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)
Loading substrate evidence…
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Political posts
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Tested over
- 2017-present (TT+TS stitch)
Generic attention; falsification control vs trump_tariff_tone.
Related families
Explore Trump Post Volume on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.