Economy & PolicyExtended setexperimental liveNew

Trump Tariff Tone

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong only

2023

Cohen-Diether-Malloy 2013 (Twitter-style attention) + Bianchi-Gomez-Melo 2023 (Fed/political speech on markets). Broadcast-attribution adapted to Trump tariff/china posts.

Citation only, paper link pending.

In plain terms

When Trump posts heavily about tariffs or China, we test a one-day-later move on every ticker and let the harness discover which ones actually react.

How it works

Trump tariff- and china-classified posts on Twitter (2017-21) and Truth Social (2022-) drive next-day moves in importers, defense primes, and domestic manufacturers. Aggregate count of policy-classified posts per day is z-scored over a 60-day window; on z-spike days we broadcast a long signal to every ticker and let luck-adjusted scoring / PBO / multitest gates surface the genuine cross-section.

Live results

235 times picked on its own · 284 times inside a blend (221 beat the stock) · updated 2026-07-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 284 such blended picks (221 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Political posts
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Political posts nlp
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Tested over: 2017-present (TT+TS stitch)

Cross-section effect; substrate gates surface 5-50 tickers with real attribution.

Related families

Trump Post VolumeEconomy & Policy

When Trump posts a lot in one day, we test whether that volume alone moves any ticker the next day, regardless of what he said.

Trump Company MentionEconomy & Policy

When Trump names a company, we trade in the direction his tone suggests for 1-5 days.

Explore Trump Tariff Tone on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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