viirs hotspot density utility short
What it checks
When NASA's VIIRS satellites detect a sustained surge of fire hotspots in California, PG&E and other CA utilities face heightened liability risk — short them. The flip side: reinsurers benefit from higher premium pricing post-event — go long.
Mechanism
Sustained high VIIRS satellite hotspot counts within California / PG&E service territory bounding-box correlate with elevated wildfire-liability risk for the utility (PG&E ~$30B aggregate liability from 2017-2018 fires) and lift reinsurance demand on the offsetting side. Uses the VIIRS feed (591MB table, 5y depth, 375m resolution) for a faster-moving signal than NIFC weekly summaries.
Signal rule
VIIRS 7d rolling sum of hotspots in CA bounding-box top-90th/95th-pctl of trailing 252d (T+1) -> SHORT CA utility (PCG, EIX, SRE, AVA, PNW, HE) AND LONG reinsurer (RNR, RE, AGO, EG, ACGL) for 10/20 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
viirs_firesWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- -1 to -3% utility / +1-2% reinsurer
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+20d
-1 to -3% on utility short / +1-2% on reinsurer long over 10-20d during top-decile fire periods.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
wildfire acreage utility shortWeatherCA wildfires >50k acres drive negative drift in CA IOUs (PCG/EIX/SRE) via PSPS + inverse-condemnation liability.
nifc wildfire utility shortWeatherActive CA wildfire (>=25k acres, uncontained) inside PCG/EIX/SRE service territory → SHORT named IOU on PSPS + inverse-condemnation liability + credit-spread channel.
wildfire smoke airline shortWeatherMajor wildfire smoke-plume events degrade visibility and air quality at major US airline hubs (SFO, LAX, SEA, DEN, BOS, JFK — e.g. the 2023 Canadian-fire smoke event blanketing the Northeast), triggering ground stops, diversions, and lower load factors. Major US airlines (LUV, DAL, UAL, AAL, ALK) take revenue and on-time-performance hits over the 5-15 day post-event window.
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