Acled Conflict Onset Defense Pit
In plain terms
Inactive geopolitical-event research using release- or capture-timed events and effective-dated baskets. Legacy bulk history is not promotion-grade evidence.
How it works
30d rolling global conflict-fatality sum keyed by RELEASE availability (conflict revision substrate), z over 365d; z >= 1.0/1.5 -> LONG effective-dated defense_prime members, holds 5/30; baseline requires region-covering complete manifests
Data dependencies
- Conflict event source revisions
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Geo exposure basket observations
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
No inherited return claim; evaluate absolute and identical-episode relative effects post-cost only after exact source coverage exists.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore Acled Conflict Onset Defense Pit on alphactor.ai
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