Text-Transcripts#309tier 1experimental liveNew

`analyst question aggression short`

cadence: Quarterlydata: mediumshort only

2014

Carcello, J. V., Hermanson, D. R., Ye, Z. (2014). "Corporate Governance Research in Accounting and Auditing: Insights, Practice Implications, and Future Research Directions." Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 33(1), 1-31.

Read the paper →

What it checks

When analysts pile on with aggressive questions on an earnings call (negative tone + scattered concerns), the stock tends to drop over the next 1-2 months.

Mechanism

Aggressive analyst pushback on earnings calls is a peer-validated skepticism marker. Negative analyst tone + high dispersion on Q&A predicts 30-60d underperformance.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

transcript_finbert_scores: aggression = -analyst_qa_tone + analyst_qa_dispersion; own-z >= 1.0 -> SHORT 30/60d

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
transcript_finbert_scores
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: ~2-3% over 30-60d on top-quartile aggression
Paper window: T+1 to T+60d

Carcello-Hermanson-Ye 2014: aggressive analyst Q&A → ~2-3% underperformance over 30-60d on top-quartile aggression.

Related families

transcript qa combativenessText-NLP

Hollander-Pronk-Roelofsen 2010 + Matsumoto-Pronk-Roelofsen 2011: longer analyst questions + lower management answer/question word-count ratios signal skepticism and predict near-term underperformance. Two per-call features: avg_analyst_q_len (tokens per analyst turn) and mgmt_response_ratio (CEO/CFO tokens / analyst tokens). z-score within own history; SHORT when current call's combativeness z > 1.0 (84th percentile). Long leg disabled because positive responses are noisy (good news makes execs talkative).

transcript analyst frustrationText-NLP

Analyst tone during the Q&A section — the *questions* themselves, not the answers — carries forward-looking information independent of the news in the call. When analysts sound skeptical or frustrated (negative FinBERT tone, sharp questions), 60-day drift skews negative. We z-score per-call mean analyst_qa_tone against the firm's own history of analyst sentiment.

transcript qa evasionText-NLP

Bochkay-Brown-Leone-Tucker (2024 JAR) "Managers' Use of Language in Earnings Conference Calls and Future Performance." Signal is the semantic distance between an analyst's question and management's answer. When the answer is far from the question (mgmt evading), the firm underperforms over the next 60 days. Reported: LS quintile Sharpe 1.4, 7.8% annualised. v1 uses Jaccard token-overlap distance as a CPU-only proxy; v2 will swap to sentence-embedding cosine.

Explore `analyst question aggression short` on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

Open universe with this filter →Browse all 338 families

analyst question aggression short