Event#435tier 1live in productionNew
clinical trial enrollment velocity
cadence: Dailydata: lowlong onlyshort only
paper
2024
Source
Industry mechanism: Phase III trial-status transitions to TERMINATED/WITHDRAWN/SUSPENDED predict negative drift; COMPLETED with results posted predicts positive.
Read the paper โ
What it checks
When a Phase III trial gets terminated or withdrawn, the sponsor's stock tends to drop over 1-3 months. Symmetric for completed-with-results.
Mechanism
Phase III trial status flips (negative or positive) on ClinicalTrials.gov drive sponsor-ticker reprice over 21-63d.
No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.
Signal rule
short when status flips to TERMINATED/WITHDRAWN/SUSPENDED; long on COMPLETED + results posted; hold 21/42/63d
Data dependencies
clinical_trials_phaseiiiWorker data table, see services/worker schema.
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- ~5-15% per event
- Paper Sharpe
- ~0.6
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+63d
Industry-folkloric: failed Phase III's tend to crater 5-20% over 1-3 months on attrition.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore clinical trial enrollment velocity on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.