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Clinical Trial Enrollment Velocity

Updated dailyData needs: lowlong onlyshort only

2024

Industry mechanism: Phase III trial-status transitions to TERMINATED/WITHDRAWN/SUSPENDED predict negative drift; COMPLETED with results posted predicts positive.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When a Phase III trial gets terminated or withdrawn, the sponsor's stock tends to drop over 1-3 months. Symmetric for completed-with-results.

How it works

Phase III trial status flips (negative or positive) on ClinicalTrials.gov drive sponsor-ticker reprice over 21-63d.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 3 times inside a blend (3 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 3 such blended picks (3 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Clinical trials phaseiii
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Reported return: ~5-15% per event
Reported Sharpe: ~0.6
Tested over: T+1 to T+63d

Industry-folkloric: failed Phase III's tend to crater 5-20% over 1-3 months on attrition.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

PFE REGN GILD BMY LLY VRTX UTHR

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Clinicaltrials Phaseiii ReadoutCompany Events & Earnings

When a drug company publicly posts the results of a late-stage (Phase III) trial, bet that its stock drifts down over the following weeks, and hold for about 2 to 8 weeks. The trade waits until the results are actually public before taking any position.

Fda Adcomm PdufaCompany Events & Earnings

FDA AdComm + PDUFA target dates are ±15% binary catalysts.

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