congressional trade cluster
What it checks
When 2+ members of Congress trade the same stock the same way within a month, we go alongside the cluster because they likely share insider info from hearings.
Mechanism
Congressional trades earn 6-12% annualized alpha; the signal strengthens when multiple members trade the same direction within 30 days revealing simultaneous information.
Signal rule
>= N (2/3) distinct congressional members same-direction in trailing 30 days -> directional focal, hold 21/63/126d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
congress_tradesWorker data table, see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 6-12%/yr (single-trader)
- Paper window
- 1985-2001 (Ziobrowski)
6-12%/yr on single-trader (Ziobrowski 2011); cluster variant adds signal strength.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
congressional trade driftGeopoliticalUS Senate/House members are required to disclose personal trades within 45 days (Stock Act 2012). Ziobrowski 2004 JFQA (Senate), Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 AJPS (House), and Belmont 2024 working paper all document positive abnormal returns following disclosed buys, strongest in committee-chair members trading their oversight sectors. Naive Pelosi-tracker strategies show 3-8% ann. OOS alpha 2020-2024 even after public attention. Uses disclosure_date (not transaction_date) as the tradeable date โ transaction_date would leak attention.
lobbying shockMacroLobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win โ pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.
Explore congressional trade cluster on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.