Corporate event#256tier 3live in productionNew

`corp jet dc lobby intensity`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumlong only

2017

Extends: Akey, P., Lewellen, S. (2017). "Policy uncertainty, political capital and firm risk-taking." *Journal of Finance*. Hill, M., Kelly, G. W., Lockhart, G. B. (2014). "Determinants and effects of corporate lobbying." *Journal of Financial Economics*. Novel ADS-B/OpenSky flight-frequency proxy.

Citation only — paper link pending.

What it checks

When a regulated company's corporate jet starts flying to Washington DC more often than usual, a policy or regulatory tailwind is being engineered behind the scenes. We buy that company for one to three months.

Mechanism

Regulated firms (defense, big pharma, mega-cap tech) increase corporate-jet trips to DC airports (KIAD/KDCA/KBWI) ahead of policy events. Trip-frequency z-score is a leading indicator that Senate-LDA lobbying spend (#77) won't capture for another 30-60 days.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

Per regulated-firm ticker, count trailing-90d flights into KIAD/KDCA/KBWI. Z-score vs trailing-2y own-history. Fire LONG when z >= 1.5 (T+1); hold 20/60 trading days.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
corporate_jet_flights
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: untested — internal
Paper window: T+0 to T+60d

Untested — internal. Targets the lead-time between physical political-capital deployment and the LDA quarterly disclosure that #77 trades.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

LMT NOC RTX PFE JNJ MSFT META GOOGL

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

lobbying shockMacro

Lobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win — pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.

congressional trade driftPolitical

US Senate/House members are required to disclose personal trades within 45 days (Stock Act 2012). Ziobrowski 2004 JFQA (Senate), Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 AJPS (House), and Belmont 2024 working paper all document positive abnormal returns following disclosed buys, strongest in committee-chair members trading their oversight sectors. Naive Pelosi-tracker strategies show 3-8% ann. OOS alpha 2020-2024 even after public attention. Uses disclosure_date (not transaction_date) as the tradeable date — transaction_date would leak attention.

corporate jet destinationsAlt-Data

FAA-registered corporate jet visits unusual airport (not in baseline 5y top-3) → M&A rumor signal.

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corp jet dc lobby intensity