Event#344tier 2experimental liveNew

`corp jet management distraction short`

cadence: Monthlydata: mediumshort only

2014

Yermack, D. (2014). "Tailspotting: Identifying and profiting from CEO vacation trips." Review of Financial Studies, 27(3), 809-848.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Months when a company's corporate jet flies way more than usual (z >= 2 over 2 years) signal distracted management — short for the next quarter.

Mechanism

Yermack 2014 showed excess CEO travel is associated with weaker operating performance. We generalize beyond vacations: monthly total corp-jet activity z >= +2 vs own 24mo baseline signals management distraction (heavy travel cycles, executive turnover, M&A negotiations).

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

monthly flight count z >= +2.0 vs ticker's own 24-month baseline → SHORT on T+1; hold 60/90d.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
corporate_jet_flights
Corporate-jet flight history derived from OpenSky/ADSB sources and mapped to tickers.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: 100-300 bps
Paper window: T+1 to T+90d

100-300 bps over 60-90d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

AAPL TSLA MSFT META

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

corp jet dc lobby intensityCorporate event

Regulated firms (defense, big pharma, mega-cap tech) increase corporate-jet trips to DC airports (KIAD/KDCA/KBWI) ahead of policy events. Trip-frequency z-score is a leading indicator that Senate-LDA lobbying spend (#77) won't capture for another 30-60 days.

corp jet cluster ma leakCorporate event

When >=2 distinct corporate jets (candidate acquirer + target) land at the same metropolitan/regional airport within a rolling 48h window, the pattern statistically precedes an M&A announcement leak. The single-jet "unusual destination" effect from Bao-Edmans 2023 (#201) is complemented here by a multi-party clustering rule on the same source data.

corp jet weekend burst eventEvent

Routine corporate jet usage is Mon-Fri business hours. Weekend/US-holiday clusters (>=2 flights in 7d) are anomalous and signal urgency (board meetings, regulatory briefings, M&A negotiations, executive scenarios). Event-window long-vol on the resolution.

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corp jet management distraction short