crop condition x weather composite
What it checks
When crop conditions deteriorate AND the climate signal is unusually strong, we buy ag-input/processor names - the joint signal is sharper than either alone.
Mechanism
Negative crop-condition shocks combined with strong climate-temperature anomalies (proxied by NOAA ONI/ENSO) compound into a stronger supply-shock signal than either alone. The product term captures the Roberts-Schlenker joint causal channel.
Signal rule
Composite = (-condition_z) * max(|ONI|_z, 0); composite >= +1.0 -> LONG ag-input/processor basket; hold 20/40/60 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
usda_crop_progressUSDA NASS weekly crop progress and condition reports.
noaa_oniWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 100-250 bps over 20-60d (modeled)
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+60d
Roberts-Schlenker joint-pathway target 100-250 bps over 20-60d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
usda crop condition ag driftAgricultureWeak Good/Excellent crop-condition readings signal supply tightness and price pressure that can pass through to agribusiness and equipment equities.
crop state dispersion shortAgricultureHigh variance in % Good/Excellent across major-producer states (CORN — IA/IL/NE; SOYBEANS — IL/IA/MN; WHEAT — KS/ND/MT) signals supply uncertainty. Demand-elastic ag-equipment names (DE/AGCO/CNHI/CAT) underperform on capex deferrals.
enso oniWeather|ONI| > 1.5 → soft-commodity shocks lift ag inputs/handlers 90-180d.
Explore crop condition x weather composite on alphactor.ai
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