crop state dispersion short
What it checks
When top-producer states disagree about crop conditions, supply uncertainty rises and ag-equipment makers tend to underperform.
Mechanism
High variance in % Good/Excellent across major-producer states (CORN — IA/IL/NE; SOYBEANS — IL/IA/MN; WHEAT — KS/ND/MT) signals supply uncertainty. Demand-elastic ag-equipment names (DE/AGCO/CNHI/CAT) underperform on capex deferrals.
Signal rule
Cross-state Good/Excellent std-dev z-score >= +1.0 -> SHORT ag-equipment basket; hold 10/20/40 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
usda_crop_progressUSDA NASS weekly crop progress and condition reports.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 100-200 bps over 10-40d (modeled)
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+40d
Adjemian/Lehecka WASDE-uncertainty channel; internal target 100-200 bps over 10-40d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
usda crop condition ag driftAgricultureWeak Good/Excellent crop-condition readings signal supply tightness and price pressure that can pass through to agribusiness and equipment equities.
wasde yield surpriseGeographicalYield surprise vs survey → 1-3d futures move + equity drift.
usda basis inversion ag longCommoditiesCash > futures (negative basis, i.e. basis inversion) signals supply tightness in the underlying grain. Translates into LONG ag-equipment + fertilizer equities over 20-40d as planting/storage pressure clears.
Explore crop state dispersion short on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.