Crop State Dispersion Short
In plain terms
When top-producer states disagree about crop conditions, supply uncertainty rises and ag-equipment makers tend to underperform.
How it works
High variance in % Good/Excellent across major-producer states (CORN — IA/IL/NE; SOYBEANS — IL/IA/MN; WHEAT — KS/ND/MT) signals supply uncertainty. Demand-elastic ag-equipment names (DE/AGCO/CNHI/CAT) underperform on capex deferrals.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- USDA crop progress
USDA NASS weekly crop progress and condition reports.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 100-200 bps over 10-40d (modeled)
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+40d
Adjemian/Lehecka WASDE-uncertainty channel; internal target 100-200 bps over 10-40d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When USDA crop conditions deteriorate, we buy agribusiness and ag-equipment names that can benefit from supply tightness.
USDA WASDE yield surprises: an upside surprise (bumper crop, cheaper grain) helps processor margins (ADM/BG/INGR/DAR) and hurts equipment demand (DE/AGCO); a downside surprise is the reverse.
When cash grain trades above futures (negative basis), supply is tight — long DE/AGCO/MOS for a month or two.
Explore Crop State Dispersion Short on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.