Agriculture#268tier 2waiting_dataNew

`usda crop condition ag drift`

cadence: Weeklydata: lowlong only

2026

Extends agricultural supply-shock and crop-condition literature using USDA NASS Crop Progress weekly data.

What it checks

When USDA crop conditions deteriorate, we buy agribusiness and ag-equipment names that can benefit from supply tightness.

Mechanism

Weak Good/Excellent crop-condition readings signal supply tightness and price pressure that can pass through to agribusiness and equipment equities.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

Crop Good/Excellent z-score <= -1 -> LONG ag basket; hold 10/20/40 trading days.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
usda_crop_progress
USDA NASS weekly crop progress and condition reports.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: untested - internal
Paper window: T+1 to T+40d

Untested internal ag-equity passthrough; target 100-250 bps over 10-40d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

ADM BG DE AGCO MOS CF NTR

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

usda basis inversion ag longCommodities

Cash > futures (negative basis, i.e. basis inversion) signals supply tightness in the underlying grain. Translates into LONG ag-equipment + fertilizer equities over 20-40d as planting/storage pressure clears.

wasde yield surpriseGeographical

Yield surprise vs survey → 1-3d futures move + equity drift.

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usda crop condition ag drift