Crop-Condition Signal
In plain terms
When USDA crop conditions deteriorate, we buy agribusiness and ag-equipment names that can benefit from supply tightness.
How it works
Weak Good/Excellent crop-condition readings signal supply tightness and price pressure that can pass through to agribusiness and equipment equities.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- USDA crop progress
USDA NASS weekly crop progress and condition reports.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- untested - internal
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+40d
Untested internal ag-equity passthrough; target 100-250 bps over 10-40d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When cash grain trades above futures (negative basis), supply is tight — long DE/AGCO/MOS for a month or two.
USDA WASDE yield surprises: an upside surprise (bumper crop, cheaper grain) helps processor margins (ADM/BG/INGR/DAR) and hurts equipment demand (DE/AGCO); a downside surprise is the reverse.
Explore Crop-Condition Signal on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.