Real-World & Alternative DataExtended setlive in productionNew

Eia Degree Days Weather Anomaly

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong only

2018

Linn, J. & Muehlenbachs, L. (2018). "The heterogeneous impacts of low natural gas prices on consumers and the environment." JAERE. Mu, X. (2007). "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics." Energy Economics.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

Cold snap means natgas E&Ps win; heat wave means utilities win. The z-score vs 10y baseline tells you when the move is real.

How it works

HDD/CDD vs 10y same-day baseline z-score predicts heating/cooling demand surprise. Cold anomaly (z>1.5σ HDD) → LONG natgas E&Ps; hot anomaly → LONG utilities.

Live results

1 times picked on its own · 3 times inside a blend (3 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 3 such blended picks (3 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Eia degree days
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: 200-400 bps basket over 5-20d
Tested over: T+1 to T+20d

Linn-Muehlenbachs document 2-4% basket-level move within 5d on >1.5σ weather anomaly.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

EQT RRC AR CHK D SO EXC

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Eia Natgas Storage SurpriseReal-World & Alternative Data

Every Thursday EIA publishes US natgas storage. If the build is smaller than expected, natgas E&Ps (EQT, RRC, CHK) jump for 1-5 days.

Weather X Eia X UtilitiesReal-World & Alternative Data

When cold weather and tight natural-gas storage hit simultaneously, gas producers (EQT/RRC) outperform and utilities (D/SO/EXC) underperform for one to two weeks. We trade both sides of that pair when the signal fires.

Explore Eia Degree Days Weather Anomaly on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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