Weather X Eia X Utilities
In plain terms
When cold weather and tight natural-gas storage hit simultaneously, gas producers (EQT/RRC) outperform and utilities (D/SO/EXC) underperform for one to two weeks. We trade both sides of that pair when the signal fires.
How it works
Cold-weather anomaly (HDD 1σ above same-week 5y mean) combined with tight natgas storage (storage_change 1σ below same-week 5y mean) is a joint demand+supply stress. Utilities (fuel-cost passthrough lag) underperform short-term; natgas E&Ps benefit on price. We combine both legs into a directional pair trade per ticker.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Eia degree days
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Eia natgas storage
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- untested — internal
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+10d
Untested — internal. Linn-Muehlenbachs 2018 documents +2-4% per-week E&P passthrough on natgas supply shocks; utility side capture untested.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Every Thursday EIA publishes US natgas storage. If the build is smaller than expected, natgas E&Ps (EQT, RRC, CHK) jump for 1-5 days.
NWS forecasts cold spike → long nat-gas E&P for 1-2 weeks.
Cold snap means natgas E&Ps win; heat wave means utilities win. The z-score vs 10y baseline tells you when the move is real.
Explore Weather X Eia X Utilities on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.