election political cycle rotation
What it checks
Polymarket Dem-odds rise → defense + healthcare rally; GOP-odds rise → energy + financials rally.
Mechanism
Dem-victory prob delta predicts cross-sectional sector rotation (gov-spend-exposed names long under Dems, energy/financials/private-prisons long under GOP).
Signal rule
30d Δ Dem-prob >= +5pp → long LMT/UNH/STRA; <= -5pp → long GEO/CXW/XLE/XLF; hold 30/90/180d
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
election_oddsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
congress_tradesWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- +2% to +6%
- Paper Sharpe
- ~0.4
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+180d
+2% to +6% over 90-180d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
congressional trade driftPoliticalUS Senate/House members are required to disclose personal trades within 45 days (Stock Act 2012). Ziobrowski 2004 JFQA (Senate), Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 AJPS (House), and Belmont 2024 working paper all document positive abnormal returns following disclosed buys, strongest in committee-chair members trading their oversight sectors. Naive Pelosi-tracker strategies show 3-8% ann. OOS alpha 2020-2024 even after public attention. Uses disclosure_date (not transaction_date) as the tradeable date — transaction_date would leak attention.
sipri defense spendingGeopoliticalTop-quintile global YoY defense-spend growth → US primes outperform 90-180d.
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