federal contract award drift
What it checks
Big federal contract wins quietly preview revenue beats 1-2 quarters out. Long the ticker the day after a top-decile award.
Mechanism
Federal contract awards lock in revenue visibility 30-60 days before the sell-side catches up. Strongest in defense primes (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BA, LHX, HII) and IT services (LDOS, SAIC, CACI, BAH). A contract award whose total_obligation lands in the top decile of the ticker's prior 5y award distribution opens a long T+1, held 30/60/90 days.
Signal rule
Long T+1 after a top-decile (by total_obligation vs ticker's prior 5y) federal contract award; hold 30/60/90 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
federal_contractsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 30-60d revenue-visibility lead
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+90d
30-60d revenue-visibility lead → multiple expansion before sell-side estimate revisions.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
lobbying shockMacroLobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win — pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.
acled conflict onset defenseGeopoliticalLarge rise in conflict fatalities (rolling 30d global) → 5-30d outperformance of US defense primes + downstream suppliers.
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