Guidance Withdrawal 8K Short
In plain terms
When a company formally pulls or suspends guidance, this family treats it as a negative information event and tests the following drift.
How it works
When a firm withdraws or suspends guidance in an 8-K, it can signal deteriorating visibility and negative analyst revisions. This first pass scans 8-K summaries for guidance-withdrawal language.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- SEC 8k events
Item-coded 8-K events (1.01 material agreements, 4.02 non-reliance, etc.).
Expected edge
- Tested over
- 8-K event windows
Negative post-withdrawal drift as guidance loss reprices.
Related families
Counts direction-specific words ('expect', 'headwind', etc.) on the call and z-scores them — guidance shifts predict price drift.
Counts uncertainty/risk words ('may', 'could', 'challenging') in 10-K Item 1 (Business) YoY. A spike means management is privately more worried — bearish.
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