guidance withdrawal 8k short
What it checks
When a company formally pulls or suspends guidance, this family treats it as a negative information event and tests the following drift.
Mechanism
When a firm withdraws or suspends guidance in an 8-K, it can signal deteriorating visibility and negative analyst revisions. This first pass scans 8-K summaries for guidance-withdrawal language.
Signal rule
8-K event_summary contains guidance/outlook/forecast withdrawal or suspension language -> short T+1, hold 20/45/60d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
sec_8k_eventsItem-coded 8-K events (1.01 material agreements, 4.02 non-reliance, etc.).
Expected edge
- Paper window
- 8-K event windows
Negative post-withdrawal drift as guidance loss reprices.
Related families
transcript guidance shiftText & FilingsBowen-Davis-Matsumoto 2002 + Demers-Vega 2010: keyword markers of guidance direction predict drift. We count occurrences of direction-specific phrases per call (RAISE words: "raised guidance", "increased outlook", "exceeding expectations"; LOWER words: "lowered guidance", "reduced outlook", "miss expectations") and z-score (raise_count β lower_count) within own history. Long when net raise > 1 SD; short when net lower > 1 SD.
filing text deltaText & FilingsYear-over-year change in uncertainty/risk language in 10-K Item 1 ('Business' section). Spike in 'may', 'could', 'uncertain', 'challenging', 'risk' tokens per 10K words β management is privately more cautious β forward earnings miss / underperformance. Stable or decreasing language β quietly confident outlook β outperform.
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