Filings, Insiders & OwnershipExtended setexperimental liveNew

Item 2 03 Debt Obligation Short

Updated eventData needs: lowshort only

1999

Spiess, D. K., Affleck-Graves, J. (1999). "The Long-Run Performance of Stock Returns Following Debt Offerings." Journal of Financial Economics 54(1), 45-73.

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In plain terms

Companies that issue new debt (Item 2.03) tend to underperform for 6-12 months. Managers often issue debt when their equity is overvalued or balance-sheet pressure is rising.

How it works

8-K Item 2.03 (Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation) discloses new debt issuance. Spiess-Affleck-Graves 1999 document negative long-run drift after debt offerings (consistent with capital-structure timing where managers issue debt when overvalued or facing constraints). Short the post-filing window for 60-180 days.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 1 times inside a blend (1 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 1 such blended picks (1 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
SEC 8k events
Item-coded 8-K events (1.01 material agreements, 4.02 non-reliance, etc.).

Expected edge

Reported return: -3 to -7% over 6-12mo
Tested over: T+1 to T+180d

Spiess-Affleck-Graves 1999; -3 to -7% over 6-12mo on new-debt issuance.

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Explore Item 2 03 Debt Obligation Short on alphactor.ai

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