Macro#379tier 2experimental liveNew

`jolts hiring acceleration long`

cadence: Monthlydata: lowlong only

2014

Belo, F., Lin, X., Bazdresch, S. (2014). "Labor Hiring, Investment, and Stock Return Predictability." Journal of Accounting Economics, 57(2-3), 142-160.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Industry hiring acceleration (the 3-month change in YoY job openings growth) leads earnings surprises by about a quarter. When an industry's hiring growth jumps by 5+ percentage points over 3 months, go long the industry leaders for 1-3 months.

Mechanism

Distinct from #79 jolts_hiring_momentum which uses the level of openings_yoy_pct — this family captures the ACCELERATION: the 3-month delta of openings_yoy_pct, which front-runs the level signal by ~1 quarter. Accelerating industry hiring is a leading indicator of demand strength → margin expansion → +EPS surprise on the LONG side.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

Δ_3m(openings_yoy_pct) >= +5pp / +10pp with 45-day publication lag (T+1) -> LONG industry-leader ticker for 21/63 trading days.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
jolts_industry_openings
BLS Job-Openings & Labor-Turnover Survey at monthly cadence.
stocks
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: +2-4% over 21-63d
Paper window: T+45d to T+63d after publication

+2-4% over 21-63d on accelerating-industry leaders (extension of BLB 2014).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

NVDA META GOOGL AMZN XOM CVX

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

jolts hiring momentumMomentum

Belo, Lin & Bazdresch (2014) JAE "Labor hiring, investment, and stock return predictability": firms (and industries) with strong hiring growth tend to outperform over the following 1-2 quarters because hiring precedes earnings — management is acting on private information about demand. v1 is industry-level via BLS JOLTS supersector openings: long when YoY openings growth > +20% (strong sectoral demand), short when < −10% (sectoral contraction).

jolts quits wage pressure shortMacro

Elevated industry separations (the closest BLS-JOLTS public proxy for the unobservable quits-rate; quits aren't published as a separate column at supersector grain) signal wage-cost pressure in labor-intensive firms — restaurants, retail, hospitality. The path: elevated turnover → wage pressure → margin compression → -EPS surprise on the SHORT side.

industry lead lagAlt-Data

Information about industry-A fundamentals diffuses slowly to firms in industry-B that are economically linked. Menzly-Ozbas (2010, JF) show upstream industry returns predict downstream industry returns at 1-month horizon, with the slowest diffusion in retail-light / illiquid names. We approximate "upstream industry" by using the broad market (SPY) and the ticker's own sector ETF as proxies (the weak-form version of the family until the BEA input-output customer-supplier matrix is loaded).

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jolts hiring acceleration long