Macro#378tier 2experimental liveNew

`jolts quits wage pressure short`

cadence: Monthlydata: lowshort only

1988

Akerlof, G., Rose, A.K., Yellen, J.L. (1988). "Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market." BPEA. Combined with Stevens (1997) JLE.

Citation only — paper link pending.

What it checks

When the BLS JOLTS data shows industry separations (people quitting + getting laid off) jumping above their 12-month average in labor-intensive sectors like restaurants and retail, wage pressure follows. Short the basket for 1-3 months.

Mechanism

Elevated industry separations (the closest BLS-JOLTS public proxy for the unobservable quits-rate; quits aren't published as a separate column at supersector grain) signal wage-cost pressure in labor-intensive firms — restaurants, retail, hospitality. The path: elevated turnover → wage pressure → margin compression → -EPS surprise on the SHORT side.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

separations_thousands z-score over trailing 12 months >= 1.0 / 1.5 for labor-intensive industries (Leisure & Hospitality, Trade/Transport/Utilities, Education/Health) with 45-day publication lag (T+1) -> SHORT for 21/63 trading days.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
jolts_industry_openings
BLS Job-Openings & Labor-Turnover Survey at monthly cadence.
stocks
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: -1 to -3% over 21-63d
Paper window: T+45d to T+63d after publication

-1 to -3% over 21-63d on labor-intensive names during wage-pressure regimes.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

CMG MCD SBUX DRI WMT TGT MAR HLT

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

jolts hiring momentumMomentum

Belo, Lin & Bazdresch (2014) JAE "Labor hiring, investment, and stock return predictability": firms (and industries) with strong hiring growth tend to outperform over the following 1-2 quarters because hiring precedes earnings — management is acting on private information about demand. v1 is industry-level via BLS JOLTS supersector openings: long when YoY openings growth > +20% (strong sectoral demand), short when < −10% (sectoral contraction).

jolts hiring acceleration longMacro

Distinct from #79 jolts_hiring_momentum which uses the level of openings_yoy_pct — this family captures the ACCELERATION: the 3-month delta of openings_yoy_pct, which front-runs the level signal by ~1 quarter. Accelerating industry hiring is a leading indicator of demand strength → margin expansion → +EPS surprise on the LONG side.

macro regimeMacro

Beyond regime_overlay (#10) which uses VIX + SPY trend, this family keys off the macro regime detected from FRED data: term-spread inversion (10Y−2Y < 0), credit-spread widening or compression (BAA−10Y z), and Fed funds cycle direction. Single-name version: gate the simple long-trend signal (SMA50 > SMA200) on the FRED macro regime — full long only in risk-on, half-size in neutral, flat in risk-off, short in inversion.

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jolts quits wage pressure short