lobbying issue sector beneficiary
What it checks
When the lobbying spend rises on a topic our company cares about, that topic-driven sector tends to outperform. We go LONG.
Mechanism
Rising lobbying expenditure on an issue area reveals policy-tailwind expectations for firms in the sector served by that issue. Signal leads policy outcomes by 1-3 quarters.
Signal rule
Focal top-issue identified from own disclosures; sector-aggregate quarterly lobbying spend on that issue, 8q rolling z>1.0/1.5 -> LONG focal 60/90/180d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
lobbying_disclosuresOpenSecrets Senate LDA quarterly lobbying-spend filings.
Expected edge
- Paper window
- 1998-2008 (Borisov-Goldman-Gupta)
Borisov-Goldman-Gupta 2016 lobbying-return relationship.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
lobbying shockMacroLobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win โ pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.
corporate lobbying x polymarketMacroA firm spending heavily on lobbying AND a polymarket regulatory market on the firm's outcome trading favorably (YES probability >= 0.6) is a joint signal of policy-edge thesis. Either leg alone is noisy (Hill-Kelly-Lockhart 2014); the interaction sharpens both directionally.
Explore lobbying issue sector beneficiary on alphactor.ai
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