corporate lobbying x polymarket
What it checks
When a company is spending top-quartile money on lobbying AND a polymarket prediction market favours their preferred regulatory outcome, the stock tends to outperform for two to three months. We buy and hold.
Mechanism
A firm spending heavily on lobbying AND a polymarket regulatory market on the firm's outcome trading favorably (YES probability >= 0.6) is a joint signal of policy-edge thesis. Either leg alone is noisy (Hill-Kelly-Lockhart 2014); the interaction sharpens both directionally.
Signal rule
Per ticker, leg_A = (trailing-4Q lobbying spend >= top-quartile of trailing-5y own history) shifted 45 calendar days (LDA filing lag). leg_B = at least one ticker-linked polymarket trades YES >= 0.6 in trailing 30 days. Fire LONG when both legs hold; hold 60/90 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
lobbying_disclosuresOpenSecrets Senate LDA quarterly lobbying-spend filings.
polymarket_marketsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
polymarket_prices_dailyWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- untested — internal
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+90d
Untested — internal composite of two weak-alone signals; targets +1-3% over 60-90d horizon on policy-edge firms.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
lobbying shockMacroLobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win — pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.
polymarket event premiumEvent-drivenPrediction-market prices on company-specific binary events (FDA approvals, M&A close-by-date, CEO departures, earnings beats, bankruptcy, lawsuit outcomes) update faster and more accurately than equity options price the same outcome. When the polymarket yes_price deviates from the option-implied probability of the same outcome by more than threshold, the equity has not yet absorbed the news.
congressional trade driftPoliticalUS Senate/House members are required to disclose personal trades within 45 days (Stock Act 2012). Ziobrowski 2004 JFQA (Senate), Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 AJPS (House), and Belmont 2024 working paper all document positive abnormal returns following disclosed buys, strongest in committee-chair members trading their oversight sectors. Naive Pelosi-tracker strategies show 3-8% ann. OOS alpha 2020-2024 even after public attention. Uses disclosure_date (not transaction_date) as the tradeable date — transaction_date would leak attention.
Explore corporate lobbying x polymarket on alphactor.ai
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